07 May 2025
Another record quarter for clean power
The Australian Energy Market Operator’s Quarterly Energy Dynamics Q1 2025 shows renewable generation across the National Electricity Market hit an average 43 percent share—up five points on the same quarter last year—while operational emissions fell 5 percent. Rooftop solar once again led the surge, but expanding wind output and a raft of new big batteries pushed coal to its lowest Q1 output in NEM history.
Key numbers at a glance
• Average renewable share: 43 % (41 TWh of 95 TWh total)
• Highest instantaneous renewables: 79.4 % at 1 : 05 pm AEDT, 12 March
• Average coal output: 9.2 GW, down 11 % year‑on‑year
• Average daytime spot price: AU $‑6/MWh in SA, AU $‑3/MWh in VIC
• Operational emissions: 30.8 Mt, lowest Q1 reading on record
How wind and solar shared the gains
Wind delivered 14.7 TWh—its strongest quarter ever—thanks to a windy La Niña tail. Solar (rooftop + utility) contributed 20.1 TWh, with record rooftop exports in NSW and expanding single‑axis‑tracker fleets in Queensland. Hydro generation held flat, while gas slipped to just 5 percent of supply, earning most revenue in frequency‑control markets rather than energy sales.
Impact on prices and volatility
Negative pricing prevailed across daylight hours in South Australia and Victoria, but evening peaks remained high, averaging AU $262/MWh between 6 pm and 8 pm. Batteries arbitraged the spread, charging at an average AU $‑7/MWh and discharging at AU $279/MWh, earning more per installed megawatt than any other asset class.
Coal fleet under pressure
Four coal units tallied more than 300 negative‑price hours each. Eraring’s Unit 3 spent nine consecutive mid‑days at technical minimum, prompting speculation of an earlier than planned closure. Across the fleet, capacity factors fell to 34 percent, an all‑time quarterly low.
Network and system‑strength lessons
• Synchronous condensers in SA enabled 930 MW of additional non‑synchronous exports.
• Six‑second fast‑frequency response supplied 92 percent of contingency FCAS, slashing costs 38 % from Q1 2024.
• New dynamic‑export schemes in NSW cut rooftop‑PV curtailment by 72 percent on high‑renewable days.
Policy implications
The federal Capacity Investment Scheme will auction another 6 GW of firmed renewables in August. AEMO stresses that long‑duration storage remains the missing link: 5 GW of eight‑plus‑hour capacity must arrive by 2030 to keep pace with coal exits and soaring rooftop penetration.
Outlook
On current trajectories, the NEM could average 50 percent renewables over the 2025‑26 financial year. Achieving that milestone will hinge on transmission builds, flexible‑load programs for EVs, and whether coal owners can economically survive another year of midday negatives.